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ABSTRACT AimTropical peatlands are globally significant carbon stores, increasingly threatened by human activities and climate change. However, their ecohydrological responses to shifting water availability remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigate the connections between climate change, hydrology and vegetation dynamics in a coastal tropical peatland in Panama, aiming to understand the effects of future drying on peatland dynamics. LocationBocas del Toro, Panama (9°22′54″N, 82°21′59″W). TaxonAngiosperms. MethodsHigh‐resolution multiproxy palaeoecological data, including pollen and plant macrofossils (vegetation), testate amoebae (water‐table depth) and physical peat properties, are used to explore the relationships between climate change, hydrology and vegetation in a coastal tropical peatland over the past 700 years. Downscaled climate simulations are integrated with this process‐based understanding to project the likely future responses of this coastal peatland to climate change. ResultsWe identify a clear connection between precipitation variability, driven by shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and water‐table dynamics, which subsequently influence changes in the peatland vegetation mosaic. Historical drier periods are marked by the expansion of shrub communities into the open peatland plain. Main ConclusionsPalaeoecological studies incorporating climate and hydrological proxies are essential for understanding both recent and future ecohydrological dynamics of tropical peatlands. Our findings suggest that in response to future climate change, water tables will lower and shrub communities will expand due to rising temperatures and reduced precipitation. Additionally, future sea‐level rise, combined with declining rainfall, may result in seawater intrusion and significant vegetation shifts in coastal tropical peatlands. 

Loss of peat through increased burning will have major impacts on the global carbon cycle. In a normal hydrological state, the risk of fire propagation is largely controlled by peat bulk density and moisture content. However, where humans have interfered with the moisture status of peat either via drainage, or indirectly via climate change, we hypothesise that its botanical composition will become important to flammability, such that peats from different latitudes might have different compositionally-driven susceptibility to ignition. We use pyrolysis combustion flow calorimetry to determine the temperature of maximum thermal decomposition (T_max) of peats from different latitudes, and couple this to a botanical composition analysis. We find that tropical peat has higherT_maxthan other regions, likely on account of its higher wood content which appears to convey a greater resistance to ignition. This resistance also increases with depth, which means that loss of surface peat in tropical regions may lead to a reduction in the subsequent ignitability of deeper peat layers as they are exposed, potentially resulting in a negative feedback on increased fire occurrence and severity. 

Abstract The carbon (C) accumulation histories of peatlands are of great interest to scientists, land users and policy makers. Because peatlands contain more than 500 billion tonnes of C, an understanding of the fate of this dynamic store, when subjected to the pressures of land use or climate change, is an important part of climate-change mitigation strategies. Information from peat cores is often used to recreate a peatland’s C accumulation history from recent decades to past millennia, so that comparisons between past and current rates can be made. However, these present day observations of peatlands’ past C accumulation rates (known as the apparent rate of C accumulation - aCAR) are usually different from the actual uptake or loss of C that occurred at the time (the true C balance). Here we use a simple peatland model and a more detailed ecosystem model to illustrate why aCAR should not be used to compare past and current C accumulation rates. Instead, we propose that data from peat cores are used with existing or new C balance models to produce reliable estimates of how peatland C function has changed over time. 

Abstract. Peatlands have often been neglected in Earth system models (ESMs).Where they are included, they are usually represented via a separate, prescribed grid cell fraction that is given the physical characteristics of a peat (highly organic) soil. However, in reality soils vary on a spectrum between purely mineral soil (no organic material) and purely organicsoil, typically with an organic layer of variable thickness overlying mineral soil below. They are also dynamic, with organic layer thickness and its properties changing over time. Neither the spectrumof soil types nor their dynamic nature can be captured by current ESMs. Here we present a new version of an ESM land surface scheme (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, JULES) where soil organic matter accumulation – and thus peatland formation, degradation and stability – is integratedin the vertically resolved soil carbon scheme. We also introduce the capacity to track soil carbon age as a function of depth in JULES and compare this to measured peat age–depth profiles. The new scheme is tested and evaluated at northern and temperate sites. This scheme simulates dynamic feedbacks between the soil organic material and its thermal and hydraulic characteristics. We show that draining the peatlands can lead to significant carbon loss, soil compaction and changes in peat properties. However, negative feedbacks can lead to the potential for peatlands to rewet themselves following drainage.These ecohydrological feedbacks can also lead to peatlands maintaining themselves in climates where peat formation would not otherwise initiate in the model, i.e. displaying some degree of resilience. The new model produces similar results to the original model for mineral soils and realistic profiles of soil organic carbon for peatlands.We evaluate the model against typical peat profiles based on 216 northern and temperate sites from a global dataset of peat cores.The root-mean-squared error (RMSE) in the soil carbon profile is reduced by 35 %–80 % in the best-performing JULES-Peat simulationscompared with the standard JULES configuration. The RMSE in these JULES-Peat simulations is 7.7–16.7 kg C m−3 depending on climate zone, which is considerably smaller than the soil carbon itself (around 30–60 kg C m−3). The RMSE at mineral soil sites is also reducedin JULES-Peat compared with the original JULES configuration (reduced by ∼ 30 %–50 %). Thus, JULES-Peat can be used as a complete scheme that simulates both organic and mineral soils. It does not requireany additional input data and introduces minimal additional variables to the model. This provides a new approach for improving the simulation of organic and peatland soils andassociated carbon-cycle feedbacks in ESMs.